Bitcoin Bottom Takes Shape as Strategy and Metaplanet Face New MSCI Risk

Bitcoin showed signs of resilience this week, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan arguing that the asset may be nearing the end of its bear market. He pointed to BTC holding steady despite the Coldcard hack, fading expectations for the CLARITY Act, and Strategy selling part of its Bitcoin holdings.

SpaceX also remained in focus as its shares surged 23.6% over five trading days. Investors are weighing the company's planned $60 billion acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor, while analysts have published bullish long-term price targets.

Meanwhile, Strategy and Metaplanet face another potential index-related headwind. MSCI is considering new financial tests that could ultimately remove the Bitcoin treasury companies from major indexes.

1. Bitwise CIO says Bitcoin may have reached its bottom

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan argued that Bitcoin may be at the end of its bear market after BTC showed a tame reaction to several negative developments. These included the theft of more than $100 million in the Coldcard hack and Strategy's sale of 1,690 BTC.

Hougan said an asset's ability to absorb bad news can indicate a market bottom. He expects wealth management platforms to drive increased Bitcoin accumulation in the coming months, potentially supporting a stronger finish to 2026, although other analysts continue to urge caution.

2. SpaceX jumps as $60 billion Cursor deal fuels AI outlook

SpaceX shares gained 23.6% over five trading days as investors assessed the company's planned $60 billion acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor. The rally briefly pushed SPCX to $145.05 and its market capitalization to roughly $1.88 trillion.

The deal is expanding the valuation debate beyond SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses. Morgan Stanley has a $300 price target, with a $600 bull case, while Arete Research targets $401. Reaching those levels would depend on SpaceX successfully executing across AI, connectivity and space infrastructure.

3. Strategy and Metaplanet face potential MSCI removal

MSCI is considering a methodology that could eventually remove Strategy, Metaplanet, and other treasury companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes. The proposal uses operating assets and five financial tests to identify non-operating companies, rather than focusing specifically on the percentage of assets held in crypto.

A May simulation found that Strategy and Metaplanet would have been removed under the proposed framework. Existing constituents must fail two consecutive annual reviews before deletion, while MSCI is expected to reach a decision on the methodology by October 16, ahead of its November review.