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| | Prediction Markets: From Niche to Mainstream | | Prediction markets are finally getting their glow-up: the kind of overnight success story that, in reality, has been ten years in the making. | | In just the first half of 2025, more than $216 million has been raised across 11 deals. That's more than every previous year combined. The headliners are Polymarket and Kalshi. Once fringe experiments, they're now unicorns, with heavyweight investors like Founders Fund, Paradigm, and Multicoin throwing their weight (and wallets) behind them. | | | | | | | | | | | People actually care: After the US election, trading didn't dry up, it shifted. Sports, the economy, cultural gossip—prediction markets have become the place to put money where your mouth is. | | | Everyone's watching: Polymarket isn't just a trading app; it's turned into a reference point for journalists, politicians, and even CEOs. | | | Regulators stopped saying no: With the CFTC dropping its appeal against Kalshi and clearing Polymarket's US return, the rules of the game finally feel playable. | | | The pipes work now: Stablecoins, smart contracts, secure oracles—all the invisible plumbing is finally solid enough to scale. | | | | | | | | | Why Polymarket & Kalshi Lead the Pack | | It's tempting to think that dozens of prediction markets should exist by now. They don't. Most have fizzled. But these two survivors did something boring but brilliant: they stuck it out. | | They invested early, building deep markets before the hype cycle. | | | Polymarket has mindshare, Kalshi has institutional credibility. | | | Both weathered regulatory pressure and thin volumes, turning their survival into dominance. | | | | | | | | | What's Next for the Sector | | Institutions moving in: Hedge funds could start using prediction markets as a real hedging tool, while fantasy sports giants like DraftKings and FanDuel may eventually join the fray. | | | Exchange-level scale: Some investors genuinely believe this could rival the stock market, with trading events instead of equities. | | | Fresh product ideas: Expect user-generated markets, deeper liquidity, and mechanisms that minimize disputes. | | | | | | | | | | Have you enjoyed this letter? | | | | | | © Changelly 2015—2025
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