Does Crypto Really Care About The Election?

Good morning my tasty friends, I hope you're all having a great start to your Saturday.

Crypto prices are popping higher into the weekend and it's 70 degrees and sunny in Chicago this morning, so I don't have anything to complain about. At least not until the Buffalo Bills (my hometown team) play on Monday night.

In this edition of the tastycrypto email we're covering the rise of the blockchain based prediction market, Polymarket, crypto's role in the upcoming election, Uniswap's new blockchain, and the reasons why some analysts think bitcoin can reach $200k in 2025, no matter who's president.

But first… Volatility derived trading ranges can be found below.

Weekly Trading Ranges

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Bet On Anything

With the U.S. presidential election fast approaching, platforms like Kalshi and PredictIt have established themselves as real-time gauges of voter sentiment. However, a newcomer to the scene, Polymarket, which utilizes blockchain technology, has rapidly become the largest prediction market in the world.

Polymarket has exploded, growing from $73 million in trading volume last year to a staggering $1.37 billion in 2024, by letting users bet on the outcomes of various events such as elections or slightly more speculative topics like, whether aliens exist. (I put my money on yes, though the current market odds aren't exactly in my favor.)

Politics is currently its biggest draw with over 70% of its volume tied to election-related contracts and a staggering $776 million related to the U.S. presidential election, but it's expanding into other areas like sports, finance, and even pop culture too.

Polymarket Monthly Active Users

How it works

Polymarket leverages the Polygon blockchain to provide real-time market odds with no intermediaries, letting participants place bets using USDC, a stablecoin that minimizes the volatility of other crypto assets. Like most decentralized protocols, smart contracts are used to ensure markets are fair and outcomes are accurate, while trades are settled on-chain, providing full transparency into how markets are moving.

Polymarket's focus on decentralization and transparent governance has attracted a growing user base, gaining the attention of Nate Silver,the renowned data analyst behind FiveThirtyEight, who has joined as an advisor, while influential figures like Vitalik Buterin and Peter Thiel have also invested in the platform.

Beyond Elections

It remains to be seen whether Polymarket can sustain its active user base after the U.S. election. However, I'd argue that a global market serving as a real-time sentiment indicator—where users can bet on almost anything—represents a public good with lasting relevance, far beyond a four year election cycle.

We've covered Polymarket in detail here and tastycrypto and if you'd like to learn more, check out our Polymarket episode on the tastycrypto show below.

Does Crypto Care Who's President?

Speaking of elections, obviously they matter, and certainly there are consequences one way or another, but for crypto investors, does their fate hinge on whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wears the crown?

An estimated 50 million Americans own crypto, so regardless of political affiliation, it's seemingly an issue relevant to voters. We know it certainly matters to corporations. So much that nearly half of all corporate donations this cycle are coming from crypto backers, with $119 million pouring into pro-crypto candidates, through the Fairshake super PAC, led by industry heavyweights like Coinbase and Ripple.

For the first time in history, crypto has a role in the election. So, how are the candidates shaping up when it comes to the issue.

In the blue corner, Vice President Kamala Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris has kept a low profile on crypto, until recently. While the Democratic party, especially under Biden's administration, has been seen as less crypto-friendly (thanks to the SEC's aggressive regulatory stance), Harris is starting to show more interest.

In September, she made her first official comments on crypto, signaling she may be open to blockchain and digital assets as part of her broader vision for innovation. Crypto advocates like the Crypto4Harris group are working to build connections, but there's still skepticism in the air, especially given the SEC's ongoing legal battles with Coinbase and Binance.

In the red corner, former President Donald Trump

Meanwhile, Donald Trump has taken a hard swing in the opposite direction, repositioning himself as a pro-crypto candidate. Trump promises to turn the U.S. into the "crypto capital of the planet," and has embraced the crypto community in a big way.

His campaign is now accepting Bitcoin donations, and he's promoting ventures like NFT trading cards as part of his vision for the future. He's even proposed creating a national Bitcoin reserve and blocking the Federal Reserve from launching a central bank digital currency (CBDC). Love him or hate him, Trump's courting of the crypto community is aggressive, and it's paying off with wealthy backers and big-time attention.

Does it matter?

Clearly Donald Trump is making a concerted effort to be "the crypto guy," but this doesn't mean Kamala Harris is anti-crypto or wouldn't be good for the industry either. Vice President Harris hasn't exactly launched her own token, but it's tough to argue the future of crypto hangs on who's elected president.

In my opinion what drives crypto adoption and price action post election is the on-going increase in global adoption, financial market liquidity dynamics, and a lot of the positive developments we see when we look at on-chain metrics.

Bitcoin has survived and thrived through both Democratic and Republican administrations, and remember, it's not exactly a secret that politicians will often say and do just about anything to get elected. - Free pizza, no homework.

What Else Happened In Crypto This Week?

Uniswap Announces Its New Blockchain

Big news in the world of DeFi this week with Uniswap launching its very own layer-2 blockchain, called, you guessed it… Unichain. The new blockchain from Uniswap likely won't be available until next year, but the news has sent the UNI token on a tear, up about 25% on the week, back towards $8.

Unichain promises faster, cheaper transactions and enhanced interoperability between blockchains.

Built on Optimism's Superchain, this app-specific chain delivers 1-second block times, with future plans to reduce that to a mind-blowing 250 milliseconds.

This means near-instant trades, improved liquidity, and lower fees across other layer-2 networks, including the likes of Coinbase's Base network.

Following the announcement, UNI token trading volume exploded by 418%, reaching $583 million, and the token's market cap is now sitting at $5 billion, making it the 20th largest cryptocurrency. Daily transactions also surged 1,600%, and active addresses spiked 587 in a clear sign investors are excited about this development.

Beyond the initial impact on UNI's price performance, token holders will also be able to participate in the network by staking tokens to validate transactions and earn yield through sequencer fees.

If you're looking to add UNI to your portfolio, it's an ERC-20 token available on Ethereum through the tastycrypto wallet.

Bulls on the Horizon

In another sign of accelerating crypto adoption, a new survey from Charles Schwab signals nearly half of U.S. investors are planning to jump into crypto ETFs.

45% of surveyed investors have their sights on digital assets, specifically ETFs, marking a significant increase from last year's 38%. And while ETFs have long been the preferred choice for traditional markets, their popularity in crypto is clearly on the rise following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

Who's behind the rise? Millennials.

A whopping 62% of millennial investors plan to buy into crypto ETFs in the coming year, far outpacing Gen X at 44% and Boomers at 15%.

With the upcoming $84 trillion wealth transfer set to shift capital from older generations to younger ones over the next decade, this surge of millennial interest is no surprise.

Analysts predict that as much as $20 trillion of that capital could flow into cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin likely taking the lion's share.

While I prefer spot crypto and self-custody myself, if you're interested in adding crypto ETFs to your portfolio, these products are available through the tastytrade brokerage.

Bitcoin to $200K? Some Analysts Think So

We've traded sideways to down for about six months now, but that hasn't stopped the discussion around Bitcoin's potential future price from heating up, with some analysts setting their sights on a six-figure target.

Recently analysts from Bitwise, Bernstein, and Standard Chartered have come out with updated price targets ranging from $80,000 to $200,000.

Standard Chartered, in particular, predicts Bitcoin will hit $200K by the end of 2025, no matter who's elected, as price action will likely be driven by increasing demand, institutional adoption, and a more favorable regulatory environment.

Personally, I'd be happy if we could just break above $70,000. Watch more below.

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That's it for this week, hopefully the move higher in crypto prices is holding by the time you read this!

Also, there's a new member of the tastycrypto team you'll get to meet soon and we've got some exciting changes coming to the newsletter which I think you're going to enjoy. In the meantime...

Stay tasty,

Ryan