No Love In The Jungle

Bearish momentum and the bottoming process

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|* Good morning my tasty friends, I hope you're all having a wonderful start to the weekend. The email looks a little different today, but hopefully you still find some value in the content, or at least some entertainment. Change is coming, change is inevitable. The single constant in markets. At the time of writing, we're in the midst of a relief rally within our immediate term range of 84-94k. For my traders out there, a break higher and I'm looking for a quick move back to 100. Lower, and we likely revisit the 80.5 low from Nov-22, and probably see what the 70s feel like.  Personally, I'm patiently waiting. Setting my accumulation bids at 75k and near the prior cycle top of 69k. If we fully nuke, 40k is roughly a 70% drawdown from ATH, per 4-year cycle analysis. This would require a catalyst other than time.  In time, BTC is going higher. BTC is an inevitability. BTC is also a 100k asset with a 50% realized volatility. It can trade 150, and it can trade 50. Trade accordingly. For now… BTC price momentum remains bearish, but ETH has shifted from bearish to neutral on the daily timeframe. We're seeing some signs we could be bottoming short-term, but this is not to say we're going back to all-time highs any time soon. More likely, the relentless selling pressure from the past 2 months has abated.  As I've mentioned on tastylive these past weeks, bitcoin needs to retake 103k before we're back to bullish and I'm pressing longs. Elsewhere, ETH needs to hold above 3,690 and SOL 180. Until then, the path of least resistance is lower. With eyes wide open, there's solace in the signals. The dollar's bullish trend is breaking down. Equity volatility is breaking down, across the VIX and VXN, while vol of vol has collapsed from 130 to 90. Subsequently the stock market is back in positive territory, and we're back to a 90% probability of a rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. Breathe in, breath out, enjoy the oxygen. I am not calling a bottom, as it's a process, but relative to last month's price action, there might be brighter days ahead.  Respect the process.  Keep your head on a swivel. Stay tasty, Ryan LIVE on YouTube | LIVE on X | LIVE on tastylive Contact |  Blog  |   Learn If you no longer want to receive our communications, please click here. tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. Neither tastylive, Inc. nor tastytrade, Inc. are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved, including volatile market prices, illiquid market conditions, lack of regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and other risks. tastylive, Inc., 19 N. Sangamon St., Chicago, IL 60607, United States