| On the macro side, we're seeing signs of acceleration across growth and inflation with durable goods +2.9% m/m after two months of declines, while CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.9% last month. We'll get more relevant ISM and NFP data this week too. Should these numbers confirm a further acceleration, it signals a supportive environment (growth up, inflation up) for crypto investors. As we've discussed previously, crypto, like many long duration assets, tends to benefit when the rate of change of economic growth and inflation are accelerating.
Beyond price momentum and the economy, crypto market volatility remains painfully low. BTC 30-day implied vol is now at 36%, while 30-day realized volatility is back at low-20s. There's nothing we can do about low-vol, and unfortunately it often begets lower levels of future volatility. Then suddenly, it doesn't, and that coiled spring unwinds. Fortunately in crypto, volatility and price action are often correlated. Keep an eye on this, in the meantime, maybe there's an opportunity to buy cheap upside calls on crypto ETFs like IBIT and ETHA.
Also, keep in mind, with this low volatility, we calculate smaller expected moves. See BTC vol implying around a $6,000 move over the next week.
So, bullish weekly/monthly price momentum, supportive macro environment, low volatility, potential seasonal tailwinds.
Again, I think you want to stay long and buy dips until this setup changes. What matters most is the macro, especially as the crypto market matures, and while we don't appear to be in it at the moment, there will be a time when growth and inflation collapse, tech stocks get smoked, and crypto gets crushed. When we start to see signs of sustained deceleration, get out. Until then, stay tasty my friends.
Please find performance, volatility, and correlation dashboards below. | 
