| Boom. The giant is awake. As we've been forecasting, ETH has made it's move and is now pushing towards its all-time-high of $4,900. Given an implied volatility of 70%, we get a 1-week expected move (1 standard deviation) of $448, so that sweet 5k level is well within reach. I've been taking a little off the table on the way up, and selling some of what I bought mid-3k. For timestamps, prices, and trade ideas, check the tastytrade platform's Follow page.
Price momentum across crypto is very bullish at the moment, but don't let this distract you from the mission. The mission is to make money. It's not to time the market perfectly. Yes, it feels like nothing can stop this rally, but we know prices can reverse in an instant, presenting an opportunity to add a little back. I use our volatility dashboard and estimated weekly ranges as my guide. This gives me a downside target of about $4,200 on ETH, per the spot price and current volatility. Now, these are not static ranges nor support and resistance levels, but areas where I'd consider taking profits or adding to my position within the trend. We could easily pull back to 4k during our ascension to the stars.
Elsewhere BTC market cap dominance is sliding lower to 59%, ETH/BTC is up 20%, SOL is outperforming BTC on the week, and we're seeing DeFi related tokens like UNI and AAVE catch a bid. I'll be keeping an eye on BTC for a "catch-up" trade in the near-term, as I think we've still got room to run with a target closer to $150k over the next few months.
Stick to the mission.
Ryan | 
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