| Calling it like we see it. Let's start off with an objective look at price action. Who knows where we'll end up. Could be rip roaring bullish, or might be bearish as hell.
Going back to February, BTC corrected about 30% from 108k down to 75k when Trump held the tariff cards up.
Then, once the market realized global trade did not end, negotiations were had, and cans were kicked, we ripped to to a new high. Specifically, we went up about 50%, near 111.5k. Since, we've dipped 10%. A slight correction in the face of rising geopolitical tensions (to put it lightly).
But then... We took a look at the 99 and went back to 106, real quick.
Was this the market pricing in a higher probability of peace, or is the market screaming it doesn't matter?
Bitcoin is trading near the top of its year-to-date range, while short-term price momentum as measured by exponential moving averages (daily 8, 13, 21) has been bearish since its signal 5 days ago. - There's noise across shorter time frames, but price has been resilient in the face of risk-off headlines outside of crypto.
As previously discussed, we think the chop continues. Use it to your advantage, in this environment volatility = opportunity. Structurally the bullish trend is still in place across weekly and monthly timeframes. Now, the market could easily pull-back again on geo-politics or fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment, but on the margin, financial system liquidity drives asset prices, and from this perspective, liquidity is still very positive. For reference I've re-shared the M2 / Bitcoin chart from GMI that's been making the rounds on X. (See Below.)
Lastly, for more context on price action, if we go back to Saturday's newsletter, we had BTC's 1-week volatility implied range at $97.5k - 109k, so BTC is trading as we might expect.
BTC volatility continues to fall, now 39% (1-year low). Sure, it can go lower, but it's been a lot higher too, topping out near 70% earlier in the year. For context, a 106k price with a 70% vol implies a $10k weekly move vs a $5,700 implied at 106k and the current vol.
Speaking of volatility, Greg Madagini from GenesisVol is back on the tastycrypto show today. Watch live at 4:30 ct and hit up the chat on YouTube | 
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