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Hello my tasty friends, please find our mid-week update below. | | | Trump and Dump. In a stunning move on social media, President Trump suggested adding XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) to a potential U.S. strategic crypto reserve, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. The market reaction? A temporary $300 billion surge in crypto market cap before reality kicked in.
Skepticism remains high and Congressional approval would be needed. It's tough to argue XRP and ADA make any sense at all. Bitcoin sure, ETH... maybe.
This could be a negotiating tactic—Trump may be using the inclusion of altcoins to gain support for BTC and ETH in the reserve, a move that could legitimize institutional adoption.
It should be noted the CME has NOT announced futures for XRP or ADA, another red flag for those questioning the viability of such a reserve.
While a national crypto reserve remains speculative, the fact that crypto is being discussed at the highest levels of U.S. government is certainly bullish long term. Trump's upcoming joint Congressional address may or may not mention crypto, but with the first-ever White House crypto summit starting Friday, the industry is officially on Washington's radar.
Live by the flow, die by the flow. Crypto investment products saw a record $2.9 billion in weekly outflows, with total redemptions hitting $3.8 billion over the past three weeks. Bitcoin bore the brunt of the selling, losing $2.6 billion last week alone, but short Bitcoin ETPs saw only $2.3 million in inflows, sign there's not much conviction on the short side either.
Ethereum saw $300 million in outflows last week, but still maintains positive inflows month-to-date at $490 million indicating stronger institutional demand relative to BTC, at least recently.
The market correction follows a 19-week, $29 billion bull run, meaning this could simply be profit-taking rather than a structural reversal.
XRP stands tall amid the wreckage. XRP, a recent addition to tastytrade's offering, has held onto most of its post-election gains, unlike Bitcoin (-26% from ATH), Ethereum (-47% from its December high), and Solana (down 46% in February).
XRP is up 392% since pre-election levels, currently trading around $2.50, though it's off its January high of $3.31.
Legal clarity may be playing a role as Ripple's battle with the SEC could be nearing an end, plus a crypto-friendly administration increases the likelihood of a favorable resolution. | | We're getting a slight bounce here mid-week, though we need to see price back above 92k and holding there.
Short-term, macro is still in the driver's seat while tariff related headlines are likely to induce volatility on both sides.
BCH daily price momentum shift from bearish to neutral. The rest of the coins we track are still signaling bearish price momentum for now. | | Following the strategic reserve pump, vol is well off the lows, though we're certainly not at an extreme. - Little to no implied vol premium when comparing 30 day realized to implied.
Realized volatility across many alts has exploded given the rip and subsequent reversal we witnessed, all within about 48 hours.
BTC's expected move is widening, with higher lows being priced in, week/week. At present, there's a increasing probability we run back into the mid-90s on a broader rally across risk assets.
I will sell some of what I bought last week into a move towards the high-end of the range and buy BTC back near the low.
Ranges are not static, but this approach helps to manage risk, especially in the face of bearish short-term price momentum. | | Relative performance (weekly):
ETH/BTC -13%
SOL/BTC -0.5%
SOL/ETH 14%
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