Signs of Life - Market Update - 3-26-25

Going Bearish to Neutral, Low Volatility, Strong Correlations

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|* Hello my tasty friends, please find our mid-week update below. Signs of life? Last week it was all about the Fed and how markets would trade post option expiration. Now, focus has shifted back to the macro and we're left questioning whether the worst is behind us. To that end, here's what I'm seeing.  BTC short-term price momentum (daily) has shifted from bearish to neutral. A good start, but we don't have the green light for take-off yet. I think we can start assigning a higher probability to the bottom being in, but the broader monthly price range remains 75-90k. ETH, SOL, and DOGE, have also moved from bearish to neutral. Will it hold?  As I wrote over the weekend, we want to see similar signals across other areas of the market. Current momentum signals:  (3/25) SPY: Bearish QQQ: Bearish TLT: Neutral  GLD: Bullish USO: Neutral DXY: Bearish VIX: Bearish There are early signs of a volatility breakdown, some stability in rates, and positive price action in oil. - A few things we want to see as confirmation we're moving out of the growth down / inflation down environment near-term. Equities are still sending a bearish signal but this could easily change by the end of the week. Sometimes crypto leads risk assets in both directions. Patience my tasty friends. Can we hold the bounce? Take note: BTC, ETH, SOL, and DOGE daily price momentum has shifted from bearish to neutral.  Implied volatility for BTC is now at a 6-month low. It can certainly go lower, but things are getting interesting. Any mean reversion could take vol back into the mid-50s quickly, and this can often occur in conjunction with prices moving in the same direction. Upside exposure in IBIT options also starts to look tastier at these lower volatility levels. On a weekly basis, BTC is currently pricing in an expected range of approximately $83,000 - $94,000. ETH has a current expected range of approximately $1,900 - $2,250. SOL has a current expected range of approximately $115 - $175. *If there are other symbols you'd like to see ranges for, please let us know. Correlations: Updated - 3/25/25 - 4:45 PM Central Relative performance (weekly): ETH/BTC  0.5% SOL/BTC  9% SOL/ETH  8%   The tastycrypto Show: Mondays & Wednesdays from 4:30pm - 5:00pm Central BAG BATTLES: Mondays on the OTC Live Show from 11am - Noon Central LIVE on YouTube | LIVE on X | LIVE on tastylive Contact |  Blog  |   Learn If you no longer want to receive our communications, please click here. tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. Neither tastylive, Inc. nor tastytrade, Inc. are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved, including volatile market prices, illiquid market conditions, lack of regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and other risks. tastylive, Inc., 19 N. Sangamon St., Chicago, IL 60607, United States