| Well that got ugly quickly. We went from tagging 99k on Friday, down to 89k as I write this, marking the third time since November that we've pulled back by $10,000 or more in short-order. Cause for concern? Maybe. What's worrisome is we've now lost the bottom of the 108-92 range we've been in. Bulls need to retake this or we could see low 80s before it's all over. BTC's weekly expected move is now pricing in a low near 82.
On a positive note, we're not seeing a related rise in implied vol, and BTC weekly price momentum remains bullish. So this looks more like a correction within a bullish trend, driven largely by bearish macro factors in February, which have been on display across asset classes. See SPX, NDX, and RUT down on the month, while gold and bonds catch a bid. Sector flows signal defensive positioning as well with Consumer staples +7% and REITs +3% vs Tech -4.5% and Consumer Discretionary -6%.
Take solace in that if you will. Solana on the other hand is back to pre-election levels and has collapsed against both BTC and ETH on a relative basis. Bitcoin dominance hasn't budged off its multi-year highs, and the ETH/BTC ratio still looks trashy as hell.
New ETF filings signal broadening institutional interest. While prices are under pressure, institutional appetite for new crypto ETFs continues to grow. Grayscale and 21Shares have both filed applications for Polkadot ETFs, signaling an expansion beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum-based products. Nasdaq has submitted a rules change request to allow Grayscale's Polkadot Trust to trade on its exchange, mirroring the approach used for previous approvals. This move also follows Grayscale's attempts to convert its XRP Trust into an ETF and launch a Cardano ETF.
Regulatory winds shifting. In addition to dropping enforcement actions against Coinbase and Robinhood, the SEC has officially closed its investigation into Uniswap Labs, the developer behind Ethereum's largest decentralized exchange. Uniswap had been under scrutiny since April 2024, when it received a Wells notice alleging that it operated as an unregistered broker and issued unregistered securities. The closure of the case removes a major overhang for the DeFi industry, reinforcing the notion that decentralized protocols operate under a different legal framework than centralized exchanges.
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