Alpha is MetaMask's weekly market report—context, data, and signal.

Predictions: Sports triple-header

2026 Men’s French Open Winner

Resolving June 7

World number 3 Alexander Zverez is sitting at 63% likely to serve up a French Open victory, trailed by Flavio Cobollio at a distant 19%, and $40M traded. Who’s king of the clay?

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NBA 2026 Champion

Resolving July 1

Wunderkid Wembanyama and San Antonio thundered to victory against reigning champs OKC, and are sitting as the current favorites to win the NBA finals with over $408M total volume traded. Are Spurs KO’ing the Knicks next?

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FIFA World Cup Winner

Resolving July 19

48 nations are descending on North America to play 104 matches—all vying for football’s mightiest trophy. France, Spain, England, and Portugal are all in the mix. Is 2026 the year it’s finally coming home?

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TRADE PREDICTIONS

Tokenized stocks: Earnings and oil

ORCLon (Oracle)

Earnings report: June 10

Oracle reports fourth quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings after close on June 10, trading up over 50% since its last earnings print in March 2026, when it posted 22% revenue growth and a $553B backlog, despite a small dip of ~5.75% on June 3, 2026.

MUon (Micron Technology)

Earnings report: June 24

Micron just crossed $1T in market cap, with shares up over 800% in the past year on AI memory demand. UBS tripled its price target to $1,625 on May 27. Q3 earnings on June 24 are the next catalyst.

USOon (United States Oil Fund)

US oil prices continue to respond to ongoing geopolitical tensions, trading around ~$140.53 as of June 3 2026. A confirmed Strait of Hormuz reopening could reprice crude sharply lower, while further breakdowns in talks could push it higher.

TRADE RWAs

Perps: BTC, HYPE, XYZ100

BTC-USDC: BTC continues to slide this week, trading at ~$66,036 as of June 3 2026, as consolidation below early-May's $82K high continues. Non-farm payrolls drop Friday, June 5 at 8.30 am ET and price movement immediately afterwards is the historical trend.
HYPE-USDC: HYPE hit a new all-time high of $73.91 on June 1, flipping Dogecoin to enter the top 10 by market cap, and hovering at $72.75 as of June 3, with institutional interest also growing and +$100M in ETF inflows.
XYZ100-USDC: The XYZ100 index brings 24/7 exposure to the top US tech and consumer companies—Apple, NVIDIA, Tesla, and 97 more. This week's catalysts: May jobs report (June 5), Oracle earnings mentioned above (June 10), and CPI (June 10) all hit the index's top holdings directly.

TRADE PERPS

The Number: $2 billion

The total trading volume on Polymarket's "World Cup Winner" market alone, currently the single most-traded prediction market on the platform.

The Setup: Unemployment numbers and unlocked HYPE

Friday, June 5: May non-farm payroll figures released at 8:30am ET from the BLS. Historically, BTC price moves when the data drops. BTC perps are on MetaMask with 40x leverage.

Looking ahead to the week of June 9: SpaceX reportedly prices its IPO on June 11, the same day the FIFA World Cup opens in Mexico City with Mexico vs. South Africa at Estadio Azteca. CPI drops June 10. The FOMC meets June 16–17.

The Big Story: The World Cup and playing the edges

The Polymarket FIFA World Cup Winner market has cleared more volume than almost any prediction market this year, and the tournament start is still a week off. France and Spain are favored with England also a strong contender, and the field trails off from there.

But the daily volume leaders on Polymarket don’t tend to be France or Spain or Brazil. Instead, it’s the longshots with no realistic path to the trophy trading millions at prices around $0.001. A $10 position at 0.1% odds costs almost nothing and pays 1,000x; it’s essentially a lottery ticket.

And humans (at least some of us) like lottery tickets. But the natural demand for low-risk, high-payout opportunities inflates longshot prices above fair value—the classic favorite-longshot bias. You could be paying for 1-in-a-thousand odds for a scenario that’s really an order of magnitude less likely. Not a good deal.

The markets with genuine information have deep liquidity at multiple price levels and real resolution uncertainty. In the case of the World Cup, this applies to the top six or seven favorites, or the "which continent wins?" market where Europe has a commanding lead (71% as of Wednesday). That 71% is checkable: sum the individual European nations' win odds and see if the two markets agree. When they don't, that could be an arbitrage opportunity.

All of it is accessible via MetaMask Predictions. The bracket runs through July 19 with group-stage, knockout, and final markets opening in sequence.

Find your next move on MetaMask Mobile.

Disclaimer: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular digital asset or to employ any specific investment strategy.

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