Alpha is MetaMask's weekly market report—context, data, and signal.
Football, football, football, plus trillions for SpaceX, and other trending markets too. MetaMask Alpha is here…LFGoooooooooooooal.
Predictions: Football fever, mainly
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Resolving July 19
The group stage has brought expected results and some surprises...France leads at ~18% after a 3-1 trounce vs Senegal, then Spain despite a draw against #67-ranked Cape Verde, next England with a 4-2 vengeance win over Croatia for 2018, and Argentina following their (read: Messi's) 3-0 Algeria takedown. Who's lifting football's biggest trophy?
Co-hosts Mexico lead at ~62% after a 2-0 win over South Africa, with South Korea at ~35%. The two face off Thursday, June 18 at 6 pm PST. Mexico and South Korea had each other's back in 2018, but friendship is temporary. A World Cup win is forever...
Poch's USA squad put 4 past Paraguay to sit at ~69% on Polymarket, followed by Australia at ~21% after its 2-0 win vs Türkiye. Decisive matches land June 25–26, with USA vs Türkiye on the 25th. Can home field advantage carry the co-hosts through?
There is a world outside of football… BTC up/down 5-minute markets are now live on MetaMask Mobile. Think you can predict a Bitcoin rip or the dip? Tap in.
The biggest IPO in history. SpaceX priced at $135 on June 11 before opening at $150, and crossed the $200 mark, up over 50% in under a week. SPCXon (Ondo tokenized) is trading at ~$193 as of June 17. Oh, and there's 18,712 BTC sitting on SpaceX's balance sheet too.
DRAMon (Tokenized DRAM)
Memory chip ETF DRAM launched on April 2 at $28 a share, and trading at ~$71 as of June 17. The fund packs Samsung (25%), SK Hynix (24%), and Micron (24%) into a single ticker, riding an AI-driven memory supercycle. Micron's fiscal Q3 2026 earnings land June 24.
USOon (United States Oil Fund)
Crude oil is slipping. The catalyst: an initial US-Iran peace deal has been agreed, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and release months of bottled-up supply. Brent dropped to ~$79 on June 17, down ~30% from May highs with USOon at ~$114.
SPCX-USDC: SpaceX perps are the trending trade of the month. Pre-IPO volume hit $3.2B across eight exchanges, and post-listing derivatives activity is ramping up. Nasdaq 100 eligibility news could be the next catalyst, or the first reality check.
BTC-USDC: Bitcoin dropped to ~$64,134 following June 17 FOMC decision to hold interest rates steady—Kevin Warsh's first as Chair. BTC has sold off after eight of the last nine Fed meetings regardless of outcome.
TAO-USDC: Bittensor’s TAO rallied ~23% over the past week to ~$244 on June 17, fueled by capital rotating into decentralized AI after US restrictions on centralized models and Anthropic. $300 is a key resistance to watch.
Cape Verde's current odds to win Group Hare up from +7000 following an opening 0-0 draw against Spain, the tournament's second-ranked favorite. Single results reprice outcomes dramatically, and there’s still lots of volume in longshots.
That's where prediction market traders often find edge. The useful way to read the bracket isn't "who's the best team?" It's what resolves next, how liquid is that market, and how much is already priced in?
It starts with timing. A group match tomorrow can change seeding overnight. A winner contract held to July 19 has to sit through weeks of noise before it pays out. Then there’s liquidity: some markets look active but trade thin enough that spreads eat into any edge. Finally, there’s the odds themselves. If a favorite's easy draw is already baked in, the obvious read might not be worth much.
This is what makes the World Cup different from most big binary markets. It's not one six-week bet. It's a chain of repricing events traders check against reality as they happen.
Group matches resolve one by one. Advancement markets close before the knockout stage. The Round of 32 starts June 28. At every step, there's a fresh question: does the next catalyst, the depth of the market, and the current price still line up?
Thursday, June 18: Markets open with rate hike by year-end odds fluctuating after Warsh's first press conference erased the last projected cut from the dot plot.
Friday, June 19 (Juneteenth): US equity markets are closed; SPCX doesn't trade on Nasdaq, but SPCXon peer-to-peer transfers continue 24/7 on-chain.
Next week: The World Cup group stage concludes June 27; all 12 group winner markets resolve, and the Round of 32 bracket locks.
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Disclaimer: This content is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any particular digital asset or to employ any specific investment strategy.
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