| Good morning my tasty friends, I hope you're all having a wonderful start to your weekend.
"I've been involved in crypto markets for over a decade now, and I've seen some things. I've questioned my sanity and even contemplated quitting. Now, I've never been more excited." __ Things have slowed down here in the cave as we approach the end of the year, and I'd say there's a 50% chance we mail it in and this is my final note for 2025. Who knows though, maybe I get a little spicy over the holidays and pen one more before it's all over. It certainly feels like it's all over. - The cycle that is.
Looking back on 2025, it was the best of times, it was the worst of times. Q4 has been wild. BTC hit an ATH at $126k at the beginning of October, and literally days later, $20 billion in leverage was wiped out. Short-term, we've been chewed up, spit out, and chewed up again. You had a chance to buy 75 and sell 126, now you have a chance to buy 80-90 again. It's never been easy, but you've always known this.
If you've been in this game for a while you probably don't care as you've seen BTC go 60k to sub-10, only to go six-figures and crash again. A perpetual boom-bust cycle from higher plateaus. Easy if you're early, devastating if you're late. I don't think it really matters though. The macro will play out, albeit slower than we mentally price in.
In time, it'll be "remember when it was $100k?" - I suppose this has multiple connotations.
As we head into year-end, price action remains in a bearish trend at the time of writing. There is no Santa Claus. We might get some relief, but unless we now retake our volatility derived trend levels and our momentum signals flips, the path of least resistance is still lower… For now.
Per the indicators I use, for crypto to get back to bullish in the near-term, we'd want to see the following:
BTC > $98,600 ETH > $3,450 SOL > $161 XRP > $2.25
These trend levels have come down as prices continue to slip, but eventually we'll get a local bottom and transition into a more constructive market short-term. We'll keep you updated as price action plays out in the coming weeks and months.
Looking ahead, I'm of the view we go higher in 2026 given the structural setup that currently exists. In aggregate, I believe crypto should benefit from the following. - The economy is supportive of asset price performance with growth holding up while inflations wanes. This is a boon to consumers and not an environment where long duration assets get punished. Of course this can change, but there's no pending indication we're entering into an world where both growth and inflation rapidly decelerate. - This is typically the worst environment for crypto assets, and not one in which we are currently within.
- The Fed is easing financial conditions and is seemingly more focused on short-term funding stress than inflation concerns. Inflation is decelerating; at the same time the Fed is cutting rates, purchasing treasuries, and has stopped shrinking its balance sheet.
- The regulatory environment continues to evolve positively for crypto assets within the financial system. We should get further clarity next year and we're already seeing pilot programs supporting crypto collateral for derivatives, and guidance on tokenized securities.
Volatility will persist in the crypto market, though I believe adoption will continue, uncorrelated to price action.
On the other hand, if we do trade within a more bearish reality and none of this matters to crypto, then I would look for prices to melt lower towards the following key levels:
$80.5k - October leverage blowup low $75k - April tariff announcements $69k - Prior cycle high $56.5k - 200 week SMA
It's not my base case, but on a continuation of this corrective move, I'd add to my position at these points along the way.
Until then, keep your head on a swivel and stay tasty. I hope everyone has a wonderful time over the holidays.
And remember…
It is programmed.
We must perpetually move forward with a conscious awareness of the corrections that transcend cycles.
For if we are to leave this all behind, it's only through process and risk management.
To the stars.
Ryan | 
