UPtober is Here

Will crypto market seasonality take us to the stars?

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|* Hello my tasty friends, please find our mid-week update below. UPtober is here. YTD bitcoin and ETH are up about 20%, equities are up double digits, and gold is the star of the show, ripping higher around 50% since the beginning of the year.  While it's been good for the HODLers, last month witnessed a bit of breakdown in price action, but the bull market remains in tact as weekly and monthly price momentum remain bullish trend.  I think you want to stay long crypto and other risk assets here given the setup, and the potential for crypto market seasonality to come into play.  On the macro side, we're seeing signs of acceleration across growth and inflation with durable goods +2.9% m/m after two months of declines, while CPI increased from 2.7% to 2.9% last month. We'll get more relevant ISM and NFP data this week too. Should these numbers confirm a further acceleration, it signals a supportive environment (growth up, inflation up) for crypto investors. As we've discussed previously, crypto, like many long duration assets, tends to benefit when the rate of change of economic growth and inflation are accelerating.  Beyond price momentum and the economy, crypto market volatility remains painfully low. BTC 30-day implied vol is now at 36%, while 30-day realized volatility is back at low-20s. There's nothing we can do about low-vol, and unfortunately it often begets lower levels of future volatility. Then suddenly, it doesn't, and that coiled spring unwinds. Fortunately in crypto, volatility and price action are often correlated. Keep an eye on this, in the meantime, maybe there's an opportunity to buy cheap upside calls on crypto ETFs like IBIT and ETHA. Also, keep in mind, with this low volatility, we calculate smaller expected moves. See BTC vol implying around a $6,000 move over the next week.   So, bullish weekly/monthly price momentum, supportive macro environment, low volatility, potential seasonal tailwinds.  Again, I think you want to stay long and buy dips until this setup changes. What matters most is the macro, especially as the crypto market matures, and while we don't appear to be in it at the moment, there will be a time when growth and inflation collapse, tech stocks get smoked, and crypto gets crushed. When we start to see signs of sustained deceleration, get out. Until then, stay tasty my friends. Please find performance, volatility, and correlation dashboards below.  Correlations: Updated - 10/1/25 - 8:30 AM CT Relative performance (weekly): ETH/BTC  -1% SOL/BTC  -1% SOL/ETH  -0.5%   The tastycrypto Show: Mondays & Wednesdays from 4:30pm - 5:00pm Central OTCL Crypto: Mondays on tastylive from 11am - Noon Central LIVE on YouTube | LIVE on X | LIVE on tastylive Contact |  Blog  |   Learn If you no longer want to receive our communications, please click here. tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. Neither tastylive, Inc. nor tastytrade, Inc. are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved, including volatile market prices, illiquid market conditions, lack of regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and other risks. tastylive, Inc., 19 N. Sangamon St., Chicago, IL 60607, United States