| Macro Havoc. We're experiencing a violent risk-off move across markets, as a number of macroeconomic forces hit all at once (which really materialized at the beginning of last month). There's now growing evidence of an emerging slowdown in both growth and inflation, which the market is pricing in at an accelerating pace.
This environment is typically the worst for crypto and other high beta, long-duration assets, evidenced by BTC -30%, NVDA down -29%, TSLA's -50% crash. It's also clear from the sudden drop in rates. See the 2-year yield -30 bps in the last month, with the 10-year yield -25 bps, while gold is ripping higher.
There will be bounces, but until the VIX is back under 20 (currently nearing 30), expect the pain to continue. When volatility breaks out, concentrated positions see a deleveraging and capital rotates out of high beta exposures. It might be short-lived, but the speed at which it unwinds can leave you questioning everything. It also presents opportunities.
I hate when people write about risk-management after the fact. We're not going to do that. We've discussed our approach consistently, and while I continue to believe this is an early cycle correction in crypto markets, it doesn't mean we won't take another look at the mid to low 70s in BTC again. If we get there, I'll add to my position.
The short-term trend has been bearish since Feb 5th and weekly momentum has shifted from bullish to neutral as of two days ago.
The BTC weekly expected move is approximately 7k, giving us an estimated range of 76k- 90, over the next week.
Feb CPI is reported this morning and could reset rate cut expectations on the heels of a weaker than expected print.
Previously, markets were positioned for easing ahead of speculative crypto policy catalysts that have since come and gone. So, until we clarity on fiscal policy, the Fed's path forward, and yield stabilization, I think bitcoin and crypto markets remain under heavy pressure in the short-term. As they say, we aren't out of the woods just yet. | 
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