Announcing... "No Change to Anything" - Market Update - 3-19-25

Ahead of The Fed, Expected Moves, Momentum Signals

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|* Hello my tasty friends, please find our mid-week update below. Ahead of the Fed. Since we last checked in... Nothing has changed. The Fed is expected to announce no change to interest rate policy this afternoon, with Chair Powell set to take questions and pontificate on the path forward following the event. He's not typically known to get spicy during these pressers, so I think the FOMC announcement is largely a non-event. Post-Fed, we've got one of the biggest option expirations of all-time on Friday, and it's heavy on the put side according to Spot Gamma. So, we could see some short-term relief as dealer hedges are unwound. Given the strengthening correlations we've observed between BTC and other risk assets, IF there's a bounce in markets short-term, bitcoin might benefit. Volatility has come in slightly and the weekly expected move stands at approximately $6k. A bounce could present an opportunity to take profits into the top end of the range.  When looking at what the market is signaling, price momentum remains short-term bearish (daily), while weekly momentum for many tokens has shifted from bullish to neutral, at best. Worst case, we get weekly sell signals next, and then... Look out below. See ETH, SOL, and DOGE. Beyond my wishful thinking around a short-term bounce, it's important to recognize that not much else has changed. The market is still pricing in a slowdown in growth and inflation (bad for crypto), VIX is +20 (bad for crypto), and interest rate volatility remains choppy (bad for crypto). We're seeing a small bounce this morning, though short-term bearish momentum persists across most tokens we track. Near term, BTC has found buyers in the high 70s, though it's been unable to move meaningfully above 85k. BTC implied vol has come in sharply which gives us a tighter weekly expected move at this spot price. BTC is currently pricing in an expected range of approximately $78,000 - $90,000. ETH has a current expected range of approximately $1,800 - $2,200. Volatility is relatively low given current IV Ranks.  Given the macro environment we find ourselves in, no surprise we're seeing strengthening cross-asset correlations. Until equity volatility (VIX) mean-reverts, expect this to continue.  Relative performance (weekly): ETH/BTC  4% SOL/BTC  2% SOL/ETH  -2%   The tastycrypto Show: Mondays & Wednesdays from 4:30pm - 5:00pm Central BAG BATTLES: Mondays on the OTC Live Show from 11am - Noon Central LIVE on YouTube | LIVE on X | LIVE on tastylive Contact |  Blog  |   Learn If you no longer want to receive our communications, please click here. tastycrypto is provided solely by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. tasty Software Solutions, LLC is a separate but affiliate company of tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. Neither tastylive, Inc. nor tastytrade, Inc. are responsible for the products or services provided by tasty Software Solutions, LLC. Cryptocurrency trading is not suitable for all investors due to the number of risks involved, including volatile market prices, illiquid market conditions, lack of regulatory oversight, market manipulation, and other risks. tastylive, Inc., 19 N. Sangamon St., Chicago, IL 60607, United States